After all these years of his reign of terror, Milosevic's era comes to an end. Unable to cope with deteriorating economy and loss of popular support, Milosevic decided to push Serbia into the war with the whole world in order to prolong his dictatorship for couple of months.
I will not try to analyze events leading to his end since there are plenty of articles and commentaries written and they are all available here on FS Net in Articles section. What is more important is to analyze current events including Rambouillet talks and airstrikes.
The main reason why Rambouillet conference failed was the condition that NATO troops should enforce agreement and protect civilians on Kosovo from further violence and destruction. Milosevic, a Russian pawn created by "perestroika-environmentalist-ex KGB-Reagan is dinosaur-Chernobyl never happened-Leave my bio weapons in Siberia Iron Lady-Pizza Hut spokesperson" Mikhail Gorbachev, was insctructed by Kremlin's hard core Stalinists to refuse NATO presence on Kosovo because that would be a serious threat to Russia and it's interests in Balkan. It is truly sad that this kind of political dinosaurs still run Kremlin's politics ignoring completely devastating economical situation in Russia. Instead of trying to prevent humanitarian catastrophe and death of millions of people in Russia, these so called "patriots", continue with their sci-fi dreams about mighty Russian empire. Empires are measured by their economy and their wealth not by how many tanks you have or how many soldiers you can waste on some remote front. For decades USSR was spending billions of dollars on weapons in order to protect itself against imperialist aggression from the West, completely ignoring living standard of it's people. All this resulted in disastrous economy leaving Russians in poverty. More of the same applies for Serbia where Milosevic used state bonds and citizens bank accounts with foreign currencies to finance his own dreams about big Stalinist Yugoslavia where he will be the God and the people would work as slaves for his glory.
All the money meant to be used for economic transition from communism to capitalism was spent on weapons, arming Serbs in Krajina and Bosnia and creating new huge special police force in Serbia. Decades of hard work went to nothing as crazy dictator decided to build some Greater Serbia without any thought of how will people live there. What's even worse, Milosevic is economist who worked for years in banks. He very well knows how economy works, how finances are done, how banking is done, how to get loans and credits.
The question we should ask is what exactly Kremlin and Milosevic are defending in Serbia and Russia? People in both countries live poorly and there is not a slightest sign that their governments will change their economic policy any time soon. Both Kremlin and Milosevic demand money from the West but only to prolong their stay in power not to change their poor economics and thus help their people, which to remind them is the main goal of any government in the world.
Today is the tenth day of airstrikes against Yugoslavia. What we can say now about necessity to use force against Milosevic? Airstrikes were obviously necessary because of Milosevic's refusal to sign an agreement in France. Agreement didn't specify independence of Kosovo and Milosevic didn't have a valid excuse not to sign. Much of the opposition in Serbia, as well as Djukanovic in Montenegro, are opposed to airstrikes because the war is what Milosevic wants and that airstrikes will help Milosevic get support from all Serbs. I don't know how to explain this. Milosevic is dictator who has firm control over Serbia and federal institutions. If Milosevic wants war than there will be a war because there is no one to stop him in doing that. No one wants war until it is necessary. Milosevic wanted airstrikes and that's what he is getting. Djukanovic and opposition were not prepared for airstrikes. Djukanovic never seriously gave a thought about seceding from Yugoslavia which would destroy Milosevic completely. With only one republic left, what kind of Yugoslavia would be left? Milosevic would become the president of nothing so he would be forced to retire from politics completely. Djukanovic wanted to secede peacefully without a single bullet fired. Only Macedonia achieved that and with great support of former US president George Bush and US troops stationed there. Djukanovic had to prepare himself and Montenegro for emergency secession if peaceful option was not a reality. He had plenty of time between two peace conferences in France. We all knew that Milosevic will not sign and that the only obstacle to airtstrikes were Albanians who refused to sign as well because they wanted independence. Montenegro is target of airstrikes because Yugoslav military installations are there as well. I wonder if there was a possibility of NATO ground troops assisting Djukanovic and helping him to successfully secede from Milosevic and his FRY. That would saved Djukanovic's regime and allowed NATO forces to come even closer to Kosovo and thus prevent more effectively further violence and destruction by Milosevic's special forces. There is a strong possibility that military will try to remove Djukanovic and reinstall Bulatovic as president of Montenegro. Losing Montenegro would be a serious blow to the West.
On the other hand, opposition in Serbia is quietly going down. Zoran Djindjic and his Democratic Party made numerous mistakes that almost certainly lead to his disappearance from political scene. Idiotic statements issued by Democratic Party and himself, constantly criticizing and attacking Milosevic because of possibility of future presence of NATO troops on Kosovo. What was he thinking about? Instead of keeping a low profile or like Vuk Draskovic's excellent statement that people on Kosovo would be safest if NATO is present, Djindjic decided to infuriate Milosevic and help him to further strengthen his decision not to allow NATO presence on Kosovo. Djindjic already made similar mistake giving support to Radovan Karadzic during civil war in Bosnia. Djundjic looks like some idealistic kid, fool of enthusiasm but of little knowledge about politics and leadership. Thinking that Karadzic would betray Milosevic and help democratic process in Serbia was silly.
All this is not of a concern right now because there is no need for Djukanovic or Djindjic right now. Milosevic is going to fight and we have to fight back Almost 200,000 Albanians have been deported from Kosovo and their number is getting bigger every day. Court martial have been established, death penalty reestablished for all who oppose Milosevic (defending country and fighting against NATO aggressors), independent media completely banned, reporters arrested. Only by force will Milosevic be removed from power. There is no point of any kind of negotiations with him. His recent attempt to offer less troops on Kosovo iss ridiculous. He offered something that was already done in October of last year when he missed airstrikes by a hair.
Everyone must know that fighting dictators is not easy and that they will go down only by force. They wouldn't be dictators if they would resign, wouldn't they? Now comes the right question. What kind of force are we talking about? Airstrikes can't do the job by itself. Their purpose is to soften enemy and prepare for deployment of ground troops like it was in Iraq. You can't win the war in air only. More of that later because airstrikes are far from over.
One of the most important aspects of any war is propaganda. It looks like Milosevic's propaganda is winning but not by much and not by far. The good news is that Milosevic is in desperate situation and that he is fighting 100%. The bad news is that NATO and Clinton administration are missing some key elements in winning the support of Serbs.
How many targets were destroyed that Serbs would like to see them destroyed? Answer is none. I'm really curious what they will say about TV Serbia. Why that building known among Serbs as TV Bastille is fully operational and intact so the whole world can watch Milosevic's propaganda? This is insane! Milosevic has already arrested and deported Western journalists and confiscated their equipment, not to mention independent media that is banned completely. We are watching that poor man, Brent Sadler who is translating Milosevic's propaganda from Belgrade. Does this man has an idea about what he is doing? Does he realize that his journalism or should I call propagandism only helps Milosevic to impress world and not to present any relevant information. I bet that he doesn't even know about demonstrations in March of 1991, when one million people tried to destroy TV Serbia because of lies coming from state propaganda. I had my sledge hammer ready but thanks to the lack of enthusiasm of Vuk Draskovic who btw organized those demonstrations, TV Serbia never fell into our hands. He got scarred by possible use of tanks similar to that in China. I really can't believe that there are Serbs that would not want this dungeon of lies to see destroyed once forever. Hundreds of thousands of Serbs, Muslims and Croats died in Bosnia and Croatia because of the lies broadcasted from that building.
Second key target should be "Beli Dvor" where Milosevic is parading. "Beli Dvor" is former residence of Karadjordjevic's Royal family and this is a true disgrace for Serbs to have some dirtbag Milosevic using that beautiful palace as his personal residence. US bombed Gadhafi's palace so what is the reason to spare Milosevic's palace which by the way is not his. Let him parade in some underground bunker with rats and cockroaches under the gas lights where he really belongs.
Third target should be discotheque Madona in Pozarevac, Milosevic's home town, owned by his moron son who never worked a day in his life and yet he is the owner of the largest disco on Balkan. He is one of the most unpopular persons in Serbia together with his mother Mira. He frequently attacks independent reporters and newspapers with guns and death threats. Milosevic proclaimed mobilization but his moron son Marko still wears civilian clothes. He was found mentally deranged and spared of military service several years ago. He likes to drive fast cars and kill people in the streets. He is always innocent, never arrested for anything.
I believe that all 3 targets were not hit because they are not military installations but I would ask a following question: What is the purpose of airstrikes, to hit Milosevic hard or Serbs? Try to see his face on TV after any of targets I mentioned are being hit. I doubt that he would be pleased as he is now.
Back to propaganda war in Serbia. Serbian state TV never reports about military targets being hit, only civilian objects allegedly hit by NATO forces. Although they report about dozens of planes and missiles being downed and destroyed, only once we were able to see the picture of an unknown American plane. If that was F-117 I'm Mickey Mouse. Who ever finds picture of gray F-117 with huge insignia written all over him I would ask him to send me so I can post it here on FS Net. NATO never reported anything about that incident, only that the pilot has been rescued. No name or an interview is available. Yugoslav military also didn't say a word about how they downed F-117, it is a military secret. Yeah right! State TV did show video from that incident, showing SAM site being incinerated while two missiles were launched. That was the most interesting video from this air campaign. How did they manage to launch missiles while being already hit? Video never showed that a plane was hit or that missiles have exploded near any plane. All we saw later was that other missiles exploded on the ground. The only way to down F-117 during the night is to wait for him to start dropping bombs and to target him then because he is not invisible at that moment. The problem is that this is too late since the bombs will hit you before you launch missiles. Since Milosevic is desperate man we would say yes to that possibility. He would risk every SAM site he has for his propaganda.
The latest propaganda that comes from Belgrade is about cowardly act of abduction of 3 US scouts patrolling Macedonian border. Since Milosevic was not able to capture a single NATO pilot he decided to capture anything American, Big Mac, Donald Duck or Energizer Bunny. Because Bunny outpaced them, Donald Duck went for the sky and flew away and Big Mac was eaten to the last one by hungry Serbs, 3 kids in their Humvee were the perfect target. They even had to beat them badly in order to be sure that they won't escape. Scenario from Vietnam is ready. They are not pilots (pardon me, scouts patrolling border) but war criminals come to bomb heroic people of Vietnam. After they are all sentenced to prison, they will be later brainwashed and used as propaganda weapon against NATO and US.
The next propaganda news is about leader of Albanians on Kosovo, Ibrahim Rugova. Similar to the Chinese legendary dissident Harry Wu, he was captured and forced to sign some papers. Wu was forced to admit that he is an American spy, Rugova was forced to sign petition against bombing. Rugova stated that Serbian police is protecting him. The man first calls for bombing of Milosevic then he appears in "Beli Dvor" chatting with Milosevic while 200,000 Albanians are being deported from Kosovo. Where is Brent Sadler? Did they brainwashed him too? This is so silly and naive that is hard to believe that there is really possible to even think about this kind of propaganda would be successful. Maybe I will appear next day on state TV giving full support to Milosevic? Who is next? Tony Blair, Bill Clinton or Madeleine Albright endorsing ethnic cleansing and communism?
State TV did show Albanians leaving Kosovo with commentary that they are leaving because of airstrikes. I wonder why citizens of Belgrade and Novi Sad are not leaving their homes. NATO dropped more bombs around Serbia then on Kosovo but Serbs stay while 200,000 Albanians are gone forever. Milosevic's police is sending Albanians to Albania and Serbs to "spontaneous" protests against NATO. The latest news from Montena fax, news agency from Montenegro is that Bulatovic's supporters are forcing children in Bar, Niksic and Bijelo Polje to quit school and attend protests against NATO.
Dance and smile dear, Ceausescu's snipers are watching us. Why do you think we have these target signs on us?
What we can hear is that Milosevic has removed dozen key military generals and colonels in order to tighten his grip around Montenegro. They are all replaced by those loyal to Milosevic. Just to remind you that general Perisic was military commander of VJ (Yugoslav Army) that advocated NATO membership for Yugoslavia. He was removed last year and replaced with general Ojdanic who is known to give statements about getting rid of traitors in FRY.
Milosevic is sinking down fast and he is resorting to the last desperate efforts to preserve his power in Serbia. Airstrikes must continue until he is ready to sign peace agreement or to give up his power. If airstrikes do not continue, Milosevic will use the time to get more weapons from Saddam or Lukashenko. Every time North Vietnam asked for cease fire they placed more advanced SAM sites making harder for air force to operate. After one of those cease fires, US lost five B-52s over North Vietnam.
FS Net Editor
footnote:
On July 14 these crowds assaulted the Bastille, a large fortress on the eastern edge of the city. They believed that it contained munitions and many prisoners of despotism, but in fact, the fortress housed only seven inmates at the time. The storming of the Bastille marked a turning point-attempts at reform had become a full-scale revolution. Faced with this insurrection, the monarchy backed down.
"French Revolution," Microsoft® Encarta® Encyclopedia 99. © 1993-1998 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved.