June 30, 1999
After Milosevic's full compliance with NATO's demands it remains to be seen what will happen next in Serbia. Although many try to speculate future events very few of those are close to reality of what is the most probable to happen in Serbia. What are the facts? Milosevic and his associates are war criminals, Serbia needs billions of dollars to be repaired after bombardment and a decade of Milosevic's terror, Serbian democratic opposition doesn't exist, people are demoralized, sanctions will not be lifted soon, independent media has been destroyed, editors murdered and jailed. Can't go forward can't go backwards. It seems that Serbia is in some state of hibernation waiting for Godot who is supposed to help and solve all the problems accumulated for the past ten years. Too many people are waiting for Godot while doing nothing productive in the meantime.
Milosevic remains resolute in his attempt to remain in power until 2001. I guess he liked a lot Stanley Kubrik's "2001: A Space Odyssey" but I hope his wife is not a fan of sequel "2010 : Odyssey Two". It seems that space is the only frontier where he can hide from the justice. How will he remain in power? He is indicted war criminal, he is the man who can't visit his country entirely, he is the only man in history who lost war by air power alone. So what? This man is not a democrat, he wasn't elected by popular vote, he rules with strong hand, he has full support of Russia. In democratic countries Milosevic would resigned long time ago because opposition would pressured him backed by the people. Too bad that ruling coalition keeps almost 4/5 of the parliament of Serbia so no one can raise voice and remove his party and him from the office. This power ratio is the same since 1990 and what has changed in the meantime is that Milosevic's Socialist Party is not holding all those seats but it is sharing with his wife's party JUL and his talented protege Seselj. This is the only difference but obviously not important one since he rules Serbia stronger than ever.
NATO bombing was devastating and life in Serbia will not normalize soon not to mention lack of loans and credits from IMF and other financial institutions. This can be significant because it will be very hard to pretend that nothing happened and that everything is well. Milosevic is an expert for this and he was very successful in cleaning all the mess after protests in 1991 and 1996/1997 in order to fool his own people and the world that actually nothing happened. Bridges are not there and it is hardly that someone can just walk through the thin air pretending that the bridge is still there. His recent speeches where he promised quick recovery are out of reality and only further excuses will keep him from being called Baron Munchausen. He is just buying time while trying to pacify people who are still in the state of shock after almost 3 months of continuous bombardments. They will not be there for long so he has to get some break in the meantime. Some help will probably come from Russia but will that be enough? The main problem here is that people in Serbia are used to be without electricity, heating, public transportation and other everyday necessities. Restrictions of electricity were quite normal in Serbia since late '70s while heating has been systematically reduced since early '80s. In recent years heating was almost a luxury and most of the population were freezing regularly. While food supplies have been improved during last couple of years, their prices had skyrocketed leaving only minority being able to buy them. Even those who have a job don't receive their paychecks not to mention large population being retired and not getting their pensions at all. For most of the people this will be just another cold winter that needs to be survived.
All of this wouldn't be so hard to understand until we come to discuss so called "democratic" opposition in Serbia. What really amazes me is Milosevic's ability to create complete charade of political scene in Serbia while keeping full control of it. Every time people would come close to some small victories against Milosevic's repressive regime, leaders of these "democratic" parties would suddenly turn against people and would start to fight among themselves and then seek coalition with Milosevic himself. This happened numerous times, 1991 and 1996/1997 being the most noticeable years. Although they had captured Parliament of Serbia in 1991, they decided to surrender without any logical reason. In 1997 they accepted Milosevic's "Lex Specialis" while no one was held responsible for election fraud. After debacle in 1991, opposition leaders joined Milosevic in his war against other Yugoslav republics giving up everything they fought for. In 1997, Draskovic insanely decided to run alone for presidency while everyone knew he would be defeated badly. After several defeats Draskovic and his party joined parliament and started collaborating with Milosevic and preparing Serbia for genocide against Albanian population in Kosovo. Even that everyone knew that these elections were rigged entirely, Draskovic didn't complained once. It looks like he was too excited to start exterminating Albanian population in Kosovo. "Who cares that I'm not the one who will give orders for mass executions and deportations, it is much more important to be in the same team!" The only bright spot at that time was Zoran Djindjic, leader of Democratic Party who refused to participate in those rigged elections and whose party members fought for radical changes in election laws. That was until March of 1999 and NATO air strikes as retaliation for crimes committed in Kosovo. Djindjic suddenly disappeared from Belgrade, settling in some mouse hole in Montenegro while his party members were busy giving statements that they are not traitors and that they are against air strikes and that they will fight NATO if they have to!? Democratic Party always claimed to be multiethnic and democratic party seeking membership in EU and NATO for Serbia. From the time of the beginning of air strikes until today they didn't mention once that what happened in Kosovo was wrong and that leaders of Serbia must be brought to justice. Similar to Vuk Draskovic, they were too busy calling for immediate halt of bombing while calling Albanians terrorists who deserved to be punished. They were too busy shedding crocodile tears for couple of civilians killed by stray NATO bombs while calling deportation of more than a million Albanians a Hollywood show created by actors. Even brutal murder of Slavko Curuvija committed by a professional assassin hired by an official from JUL, Milovan Bojic didn't make any change in their servitude and criminal behavior. Air strikes are gone but they continue to compete among themselves in the game "Who will be the number one servant (he gets coalition with Milosevic)". Zoran Djindjic is too busy traveling around Europe begging for money that is supposed to go to his party and not to the people like he claims. He wants money before any political changes take effect in Serbia. While people are living poorly his appetite for black limos and leather chairs is unstoppable. He even organized party trip to Kosovo to make another attempt of "happening" of people similar to the one organized by Milosevic 10 years ago. While some of us thought that his relations with war criminal Karadzic during civil war in Bosnia were just an attempt to bring peace to war ravaged country now it is perfectly clear that this man is the same war criminal as Milosevic is. He obviously enjoyed crimes committed in Kosovo as he did in Bosnia. His plan was to call for Milosevic's resignation when dirty job is done and then pretend to the West that he was against genocide from the beginning.
Yesterday protest in Cacak was another example of phony opposition helping Milosevic with playing West. On the same day Milosevic announced that he wishes to reestablish relations with West. Protest in Cacak was not approved but not forbidden either. CNN's reporter Alessio Vinci was allowed to go to Cacak although Democratic Party claimed that all roads to Cacak were blocked!? While watching video from Cacak it was noticeable that CNN reporters and other Western journalists were freely interviewing opposition politicians while taping it with their own video cameras. No RTS sign was present. Why was this not the case with Kosovo reporting during air strikes? Where was Alessio Vinci in Krusevac when VJ crushed uprising of reservists while 3 of them were shot? Where are video tapes from Krusevac? We see and hear what Milosevic wants us to see and hear and this time he wanted to present his phony political opponents calling for his resignation. Mayor of Cacak, Velimir Ilic has been seen together with Vuk Draskovic just one day before protest in Cacak and we all know who Vuk Draskovic is. No mercy for them, they don't deserve it.
All these events combined caused millions to be completely demoralized and to leave Serbia or stay and give up any hope. Ever since Draskovic joined Serbian parliament in 1997 he started to crackdown independent unions, NGOs and independent media. He even reestablished 3% Belgrade city tax to fund his movie and he destroyed completely the most powerful union in Belgrade, union of drivers of public transportation in Belgrade that started revolt in 1996 that later culminated during Protest 1996/1997. It is almost impossible to find a single group of people that can start some kind of uprising. Yugoslav military has been systematically cleansed from those who even slightly opposed iron rule of Milosevic while independent media was continuously silenced culminating in Curuvija's assassination and takeover of Radio Index and B92, two most popular youth stations in Serbia. Is there anything else to be suppressed?
The West lead by USA did what had to be done, they indicted Milosevic with war crimes and cut all money to him. He can't escape Kosovo crimes as he did with crimes in Bosnia and he sure will not see any money from the West or from his accounts in foreign banks. Only Russians remain defiant and ready to support this European Pol Pot but it remains dubious to what extent they can help him if they can help him at all. Russia is highly dependent on IMF and the West, one loan less and country plunges to total chaos. While Yeltsin wants to send additional troops to Kosovo he never considers their cost and will he get money from IMF in the future at all. Economic help offered from Iraq. Libya and other terrorist countries who are already under sanctions is less likely to prevent Milosevic's fallout. Humanitarian aid that will be offered by UN is not enough to normalize life in Serbia even if that aid would include sources for rebuilding electric plants and water stations. Many advocate total help to Serbia unaware that this would only prolong reign of terror in Serbia. Dictator who controls every aspect of life in Serbia will not pay much attention with calls for his resignation or for calls for new elections. He will drain money for himself and in the country where he has absolute control of power it is hardly to believe that someone would be able to challenge him.
Future of Serbia looks very grim but huge progress have been made for the past decade.
Once ruler of whole Yugoslavia he controls today only one part of Serbia while he waits to be
brought to justice in Hague. Phony opposition is finally uncovered, Milosevic's gangsters have
nothing more to loot and burn. Yeltsin will hold power until next year so the only chance of
getting Russian support in getting rid of Milosevic would be after upcoming elections in Russia
similar to what Gorbachev did with East Germany. Milosevic may last until then but no longer.
People who need to replace him must be different than those currently organized in
"democratic" opposition parties. Continuous denial of crimes in Bosnia and Kosovo, lack of
cooperation with ICTY in Hague, lack of radical ideas and radical changes in Serbia will result
in only further suffering of people. West must quickly start to plan and build future politicians
that will lead Serbia in EU. Even if Milosevic leaves tomorrow who will be those to lead Serbia
to democracy? Vuk Draskovic, Zoran Djindjic, Milan Panic? They would be even bigger
disaster for Serbia than Milosevic itself. Integration of East Germany is the best example.
Decades of constant immigration of Germans from the East to the West and absolutism
required complete rebuilding from the bottom to the top. But where is the West Serbia to do
that? Who will replace Milosevic's gangsters on all levels? Many questions still need to be
answered but it is current imperative that West should start with Serbian immigration abroad
and to undermine influence of all those who advocate ideas similar to those of Milosevic. Tito
succeeded in late '60s to divide and a decade later to completely destroy Serbian immigration
abroad. While Vietnamese and Cuban immigrants continue their fight against communism in
their countries, Serbian immigration continues to give unconditional support to European Pol
Pot. Did Vietnamese immigrants opposed bombing of North Vietnam or actions taken against
VC? Were Cuban immigrants against invasion of Cuba? Something is dead wrong here and
needs to be addressed immediately. It is hard to believe that all Serbs abroad are supporters of
genocide and mass murders. It is more likely that Milosevic's secret service is very powerful
abroad and that West allowed decades to Serbian communists to do what ever they wanted to
do. Constant executions of prominent immigrants, takeovers of churches, sport teams and
cultural societies were going on silently. Why Croat immigrants didn't support Tito, why
Macedonians were not crazy about Milosevic, why Slovenians never gave a thought about life
in Yugoslavia? What happened with thousands of Serbs who left Serbia since 1990? They
didn't left because they were pro-Milosevic but because they were against him. Without the
brightest one and without those who were a real political threat to Milosevic, chances that
Serbia will turn democratic over night are non-existent. Something needs to be done soon or
Serbia can remain in dark ages for decades even after Milosevic is gone. This is the last plea to
save Serbia.
FS Net Editor