AP - August 19th, 2004

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- A U.S. pollster whose firm wrongly predicted President Hugo Chavez would lose a recall referendum on Thursday defended the exit poll, which has landed in the center of a national controversy.

The poll by Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates has become such a hot issue because the opposition, which spent more than a year mounting the drive to force Chavez from office, insists it shows the results from Sunday's referendum itself were fraudulent.

Former President Carter and the secretary general of the Organization of American States, Cesar Gaviria, both monitored the vote and endorsed the referendum results.

The exit poll, released 4 1/2 hours before voting stations closed, said 59 percent would vote Chavez out of office. But in fact, the opposite was true -- Chavez ended up trouncing his enemies and capturing 59 percent of the vote.

Pollster Doug Schoen said his firm has been involved in polling for years and recently correctly called elections in the Dominican Republic and Mexico.

``We've done this all over the world,'' Schoen said in a telephone interview. ``To be off by 34 points as we are alleged to be, strains credulity -- there was no real independent verification of the electronic count. There was almost certainly fraud in the central counting process,'' he said.

The opposition also claims electronic voting machines were rigged, but has provided no conclusive evidence.

Carter and Gaviria, both experienced election monitors, have said their independent sampling of results conformed with the official results.

Critics of the exit poll have questioned how it was conducted because Penn, Schoen & Berland worked with a U.S.-funded Venezuela group that the Chavez government considers to be sided with the opposition.

The firm had members of Sumate, a Venezuelan group that helped organize the recall initiative, do the fieldwork for the poll, election observers said.

Schoen said his firm ``worked with a wide variety of volunteers that were provided by Sumate'' but that they ``were trained to administer the poll.''

Venezuelan Minister of Communications Jesse Chacon said it was a mistake for Sumate to be involved because it might have skewed the results of the poll.

``If you use an activist as a pollster, he will eventually begin to act like an activist,'' Chacon told The Associated Press.

Roberto Abdul, a Sumate official, said the nonprofit organization received a $53,400 grant from the National Endowment for Democracy, which in turn receives funds from the U.S. Congress but did not use any of those funds to pay for the exit polling.

The issue is potentially explosive because even before the referendum, Chavez himself cited Washington's funding of Sumate as evidence that the Bush administration was financing efforts to oust him -- an allegation U.S. officials deny.

Chris Sabatini, senior program officer for the National Endowment for Democracy, defended Sumate as ``independent and impartial.''

``Exit polls are notoriously unreliable,'' Sabatini said by telephone from Washington. ``Just because they're off doesn't mean that the group that conducted them is partial to one side.''

Editor's commentary: If Spanish elections shocker is explained with major terrorist attack just few days before voting, similar can not be said for Venezuela where nothing major happened 4 hours before elections when polls indicated 59 percent success of recall of Chavez. This is plain and simple robbery and mockery of democracy done by the man who already once tried to get to power by military coup. People don't change overnight and this obvious theft is nothing that we would not expect from him. Things get worse because The Carter Center founded by former American president Jimmy Carter accepted results and called for people of Venezuela to accept election fraud and Chavez dictatorship. Waging fraud, fighting democracy, building dictatorship is a new motto of the Carter Center. Their shameless report on referendum in Venezuela can be found here.This is similar to Milosevic's election theft in 1996 and 100 days of non-stop protests that followed and finally forced him to accept his defeat. Will 100 days of protests in Venezuela be enough or not it remains to be seen but to accept this robbery is not an option. There is absolutely no evidence to back Chavez's claims that he has won 59 percent of the vote except some bogus numbers punched into electronic machines by his men. Only full manual recount in the presence of all parties participating in this referendum can be satisfactory. Chavez's victory was announced by three of his supporters from the government without any monitoring of reviewing final results by independent observers or by parties supporting recall. Observers only watched people voting but not actual counting of votes and entering final results into electronic database. And finally, by letting Chavez going off the hook we would encourage other dictators around the world to perform similar election frauds that will keep them in power indefinitely and against people's will.

BEIJING (Reuters) - China has detained eight Roman Catholic priests in northern Hebei province, continuing a crackdown on those loyal to the Pope, a U.S.-based religious right group said on Wednesday.

Priests Huo Junlong, Zhang Zhenquan and Father Huang were among those held after a police raid last week in the village of Sujiazhuang, near Baoding city, the Connecticut-based Cardinal Kung Foundation said in a statement.

The foundation did not give the names of the other five priests, but said local police had also detained two seminary students attending a religious retreat in the village.

``Approximately 20 police vehicles and a large number of security policeman surrounded Sujiazhuang village and conducted a house to house search in order to arrest these priests and seminarians,'' said the statement.

The Foreign Ministry had no immediate comment on the report. Local government officials and police said they had no information about the report.

Chinese law protects religious freedom, but the Communist government forbids all worship outside state-backed ``patriotic'' religious organizations.

China broke links with the Vatican in the 1950s after expelling foreign clergy and has its own state-sanctioned Catholic church -- the China Patriotic Catholic Association -- which pledges loyalty to Beijing instead of the Pope.

The Vatican estimates it has about eight million followers in China compared with about five million who follow the state-backed association.

In June, the Vatican accused China of violating human rights after three bishops were arrested. At least 19 underground worshippers were now in Chinese jails, according to the Cardinal Kung Foundation.

MOSCOW (AP) -- If you can judge a book by its cover, then the ``History of Russia and the World in the 20th Century'' tells students the Soviet past was all pride and glory -- three of four cover photos invoke Soviet propaganda images. That goes for what's inside too: the textbook for Russian high school seniors touts the Soviet system's achievements -- but treads lightly, if at all, on its failures and abuses.

It is virtually mute on the deportation of ethnic groups under Josef Stalin that left hundreds of thousands dead and sowed the resentment that exploded in Chechnya a half-century later. The Gulag labor camp system gets scant attention and anti-Semitism the barest of mentions.

President Vladimir Putin -- a former KGB officer who has resurrected such Soviet symbols as the anthem and the military's red star -- is a strong proponent of instilling Russia's young people with national pride.

But critics warn that sanitizing Russia's tormented history will leave students unprepared to cope with the challenges they face in the post-Soviet era.

``The Gulag is given minimal coverage in textbooks. Yet without the Gulag, they cannot understand the history of the Soviet Union and Russia. Without these pages, their education will not be complete,'' said Semyon Vilensky, a 76-year-old survivor of the Gulag labor camp system who heads an association that documents the horrors of the Stalin era.

Three of four photos on the cover of ``History of Russia and the World in the 20th Century'' carry Soviet propaganda images: Moscow's soaring ``Worker and Collective Farm Girl'' statue, a poster reading ``The Motherland is Calling'' and the Soyuz-Apollo space docking. The fourth is a shot of the United Nations headquarters.

The textbook, by Nikita Zagladin, is not the only one rife with such gaps, critics say.

Most 20th-century Russian history school textbooks fail to emphasize the mammoth human rights violations committed by the totalitarian Soviet state, a survey commissioned by the Andrei Sakharov Museum found.

``In the majority of textbooks, this period and the aspect of violence as the main method of implementing Soviet ideals is either addressed extremely briefly, or even if in greater detail -- it is completely void of any historical, political, and ethical judgment,'' said Yuri Samodurov, the director of the museum named after Sakharov, the late Soviet dissident and Nobel Peace Prize winner.

One textbook that did highlight crimes committed by the Soviet state was pulled from Russian schools late last year in a move critics said smacked of politics.

The seventh edition of Igor Dolutsky's ``National History: 20th Century'' -- which invited students to discuss whether Putin could be considered an authoritarian leader -- was stripped of its Education Ministry license just days before the December parliamentary elections.

Unlike many other books, Dolutsky's emphasizes crimes the Soviet state committed against millions of its own citizens and insists on the importance of the Allied participation in World War II.

The book earned mixed reviews from educators and historians, but it offended a group of war veterans who complained to Putin that it was unpatriotic.

The complaint was in line with Putin's directive to historians last year: ``Textbooks should provide historical facts, and they must cultivate a sense of pride among youth in their history and country.''

Soon after, the government decided to subject textbooks to additional scrutiny and to vet the flood of books published after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Some historians say many of the textbooks that appeared in the past decade have been of questionable quality or too opinionated -- but critics of the government fear that culling books will leave only books that whitewash the Soviet era.

Some also say the textbooks are reluctant to address anti-Semitism. A series of seminars for school history instructors held by the Holocaust Foundation showed that many schools resist telling students about the killing or imprisonment of Jews by the Nazis and the Soviets, said Alla Gerber, the head of the foundation.

But Zagladin said it would be unfair to give children ``an entirely negative view -- of the Soviet era as the time of a reign of terror and darkness.''

``Approximately 18 million people suffered during the wave of mass repressions. ... No doubt, this is a great tragedy,'' the textbook author told The Associated Press. ``But at the same time, we cannot ignore the fact that during the same time period the lives of a great number of people drastically changed for the better.''

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea is threatening to use terrorism against the South, Seoul's intelligence agency said in a rare public advisory on Monday, and warned South Korean citizens in China and Southeast Asia to be on their guard.

The attacks may be in retaliation for the recent airlift of a large group of North Korean refugees, the National Intelligence Service said.

South Korea secretly organized the airlift of more than 460 North Korean refugees last month from a country that activists said was Vietnam.

``North Korea is threatening our country with terrorism in retaliation,'' the spy agency said in its statement.

Seoul's warning follows a barrage of verbal attacks by the North accusing the South of premeditated abduction and terrorism against its people.

South Korea denied the accusation, saying it was a humanitarian act and that Seoul was bound by law to accept any North Korean seeking asylum.

``We are advising heightened vigilance in view of the refugees' arrival and the North's reaction to it,'' a spokesman at the agency said by telephone.

South Korea blames the North for a bombing in Myanmar in 1983 that killed 17 South Koreans including senior cabinet officers and the 1987 bombing of a Korean Air flight off the coast of Myanmar with 115 passengers and crew members on board.

The spokesman said the warning was not based on specific indications of foreseen attacks against South Koreans but was prompted by the level of the North's threat made publicly.

RHETORICAL ATTACKS

North Korea's state media have increased rhetorical attacks against South Korean authorities in recent weeks to match its regular dose of condemnation of the United States.

The South Korean government was instigating confrontation with the North and anyone who supported the plan ``will have to pay a high price,'' North Korea said following the arrival of the refugees in the South.

On Sunday, North Korea said South Korean authorities would be held responsible for ``grave consequences'' for trying to undermine ties between the two Koreas.

Relations between the two Koreas, which remain technically at war under a truce, had been warming since a summit four years ago but have been marred by incidents that led to months of cooling.

Pyongyang boycotted a planned round of high-level talks with Seoul earlier this month in an apparent display of anger over the South's refugee operation.

A squadron of U.S. F-15Es fighter jets capable of hitting air and ground targets will be deployed in South Korea next month on a training mission, the U.S. Air Force said on Monday.

North Korea has accused the United States of preparing to launch a military strike against it and start a nuclear war.

The U.S. Air Force said the deployment of F-15Es would be for training and involve getting to know the region's geography.

Ukraine's main opposition leader and presidential candidate has said he has survived an assassination attempt.

Viktor Yushchenko was travelling in the south of the country during an election tour when, it is claimed, a lorry tried to force his vehicle off the road.

His team has said that the day before the incident they had a tip-off that someone would try to kill the presidential candidate in a traffic accident.

In 1999, a dissident and prominent politician, Vyacheslav Chornovil, was killed when the same type of lorry pulled out in front of his car and a couple of years ago, another leading opposition figure, Yulia Tymoshenko, was injured in a head-on collision.

Full story here.

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran said on Wednesday it carried out a successful field test of the latest version of its Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic missile, which defense experts say can reach Israel or U.S. bases in the Gulf.

Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani said last week Iran was working to improve the range and accuracy of the Shahab-3 in response to Israel's moves to boost its anti-missile capability.

The Defense Ministry, in a brief statement carried on the official news agency IRNA, said the test of the new Shahab-3 ``was carried out successfully ... The pre-determined targets were hit in the testing,'' it said.

Iran says its missile program is purely for deterrent purposes. Tehran also denies U.S. and Israeli accusations that it is seeking to develop nuclear warheads which could be delivered by the Shahab-3.

In Washington, the State Department said Iran's attempts to improve its missile capability were a threat to the region and U.S. interests.

``We will continue to take steps to address Iran's missile efforts, and to work closely with other like-minded countries in doing so,'' State Department spokesman Adam Ereli said.

Based on the North Korean Nodong-1 and modified with Russian technology, the Shahab-3 is thought to have a range of 810 miles, which would allow it to strike anywhere in Israel.

Shahab means meteor in Persian.

Amid media speculation that Israel may try to halt Iran's nuclear program by carrying out air strikes on some atomic facilities in Iran, Iranian officials have said Tehran would retaliate promptly and strongly to any such attack.

TOUGH TALK

``If Israel behaves like a lunatic and attacks the Iranian nation's interests, we will come down on their heads like a mallet and break their bones,'' the ISNA students news agency quoted Revolutionary Guards Commander Yahya Rahim Safavi as saying on Wednesday.

Israel successfully tested its Arrow II anti-missile project in the United States last month. It was the seventh time the Arrow II had worked but the first time it had destroyed a Scud missile -- similar to the Shahab-3 -- in flight.

``The Israelis have recently tried to increase their missile capability and we will also try to upgrade our Shahab-3 missile in every respect,'' the ISNA students news agency quoted Shamkhani as saying last week.

He said the improvements to the Shahab-3 ``will not be limited to the missile's range and will include all its specifications.''

Iran deployed the Shahab-3 missiles to its Revolutionary Guards last July after preliminary field tests were successfully completed.

Iran has not said how many of the missiles have been manufactured. Military analysts say questions remain about its reliability and accuracy.

A senior Israeli defense source said Israel believed Tehran was developing a Shahab-4 missile with a range of 1,056 miles capable of reaching Europe. Iran has denied this.

``This 'new and improved' Shahab-3 could well be Iran's way of producing the extended-range missile while avoiding the Mark-4 label, which would draw international concern,'' he said.

ATHENS, Greece (Reuters) - Greece said Friday it would ban Belarus's sports minister from this month's Athens Olympic Games because of suspected human rights abuses, following a recommendation from the European Union.

Minister Yuri Sivakov, due to lead his country's delegation to the games in Athens, was named as one of the ``key figures'' in a Council of Europe report about the disappearance of journalists while he was interior minister.

``Against this background, the European Union considers the presence of Mr. Sivakov at the upcoming Olympic Games in Athens to be completely inappropriate,'' read a statement issued by the Dutch EU Presidency on behalf of the 25-nation bloc.

Later in the day, Greece said Sivakov would not be allowed into the country. ``Persons for which there is an EU visa ban will not enter Greece,'' government spokesman Evangelos Antonaros told reporters.

Belarus expressed its indignation and urged the EU to review the decision, which it said amounted to ``blackmail.''

``Using the Olympic Games to further increase political influence on Belarus will not help build a political dialogue with the European Union,'' Ruslan Esin, a spokesman for the Belarus Foreign Ministry, said.

VISA BLACKLIST

EU diplomats say the recommendation is not strictly an EU visa ban, which requires lengthy administrative procedures. The bloc plans to include Sivakov and other, unidentified, Belarus officials on its visa blacklist in September.

``We have left it up to the Greek authorities to make sure he does not get into Greece. How this is solved technically is up to Greece,'' a spokesman for the Dutch EU Presidency said.

Greece did not make clear how it would stop Sivakov from attending the Games but government officials said the EU's intention to include him on a visa ban list would be treated as if it was already in effect.

An official at the Belarussian Olympic Committee said the minister did not need a visa as he got accreditation to travel to Athens with his country's team for the August 13-29 Games.

Sivakov was among three Belarus officials mentioned in the Council of Europe as having ``alleged involvement'' in the disappearance of opponents of President Alexander Lukashenko, accused of autocratic ways by opposition parties and the West.

Lukashenko has denied the charges made in the report on disappearances.